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Miz Robbie Profile
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The 2020 Presidential Election


The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents.

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10/7/2017, 11:39 am Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


Trump is on track to win reelection

By Doug Sosnik October 6 at 7:22 PM

Doug Sosnik, a Democratic political strategist, was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.


More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection. If Trump isn’t removed from office and doesn’t lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base.

We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isn’t going to change.

What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s. Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents.

In 2016, Trump capitalized on this changing political environment. He consolidated the growing number of angry voters who felt let down by the people and institutions controlling power in the country. Trump’s support from these voters is personal, not ideological. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership.

Since Trump’s inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning political strategy.

First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; it’s simply an aspiration. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote.

Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump’s advantage. The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get reelected simply by holding on to his current level of support.

Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.

Fourth, Trump’s support has largely remained durable with a core group of supporters. These are the voters Trump was referring to when he said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose votes. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isn’t unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change.

In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot.

So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states.

It would be as big a mistake to assume that Trump cannot win reelection in 2020 as it was for those of us who never thought that he could become president in the first place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-on-track-to-win-reelection/2017/10/06/91cd2af0-aa15-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?undefined=&utm_term=.bcdbc87d7dbd&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

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10/7/2017, 11:40 am Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


Lots of luck people. I will be praying for you.

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10/7/2017, 12:55 pm Link to this post PM GoHawk
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

GoHawk wrote:

Lots of luck people. I will be praying for you.



And I will be envying you.

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Robbie
10/7/2017, 1:22 pm Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


If Trump gets another term, I give up. Of course I have predicted that this country as we know it today will not exist maybe by 2050. The people simply don't care. It's all about winning and gloating.
10/7/2017, 7:28 pm Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


I don't think Trump could be re-elected in a million years. In fact, I don't think he will serve out one term. Are you not impressed by the outpouring of public resistance to him, from the very beginning? Don't you watch Rachel Maddow, who is documenting, step-by-step, the crimes that are daily being uncovered in Trump's administration, by a prosecutor who has the power to prosecute him?

Nixon fell. W fell (he was not defeated, but even hero John McCain could not defeat his successor).
10/8/2017, 6:25 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

GoHawk wrote:

Lots of luck people. I will be praying for you.



Thanks, Hawk. It's good to see that your plan is in place. I still harbor some small hope that the Congress will be forced by some crazy position he takes, to take the appropriate action to remove Trump as unfit for office. I wish you and yours the best.

10/8/2017, 6:43 am Link to this post PM bricklayer
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


When is the last time that a politician went to prison for something other than sex crimes or stealing money? I'll believe that folks are going to be indicted when it happens. Up until them, I'm not holding my breath. Government always protects itself as do politicians.
10/8/2017, 8:01 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

When is the last time that a politician went to prison for something other than sex crimes or stealing money? I'll believe that folks are going to be indicted when it happens. Up until them, I'm not holding my breath. Government always protects itself as do politicians.



So is the Special Counsel investigation a waste of time?
10/8/2017, 8:24 am Link to this post PM bricklayer
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


Remember Watergate, Brick?

• John N. Mitchell – former United States Attorney General and director of Nixon's 1968 and 1972 election campaigns; faced a maximum of 30 years in prison and $42,000 in fines; on February 21, 1975, Mitchell was found guilty of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and perjury and sentenced to two and a half to eight years in prison, which was later reduced to one to four years; Mitchell actually served 19 months.
• H. R. Haldeman – White House chief of staff, considered the second most powerful man in the government during Nixon's first term; faced a maximum of 25 years in prison and $16,000 in fines; in 1975, he was convicted of conspiracy and obstruction of justice and received an 18-month prison sentence.
• John Ehrlichman – former assistant to Nixon in charge of domestic affairs; faced a maximum of 25 years in prison and $40,000 in fines. Ehrlichman was convicted of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, perjury and other charges; he served 18 months in prison.
• Charles Colson – former White House counsel specializing in political affairs; plead nolo contendere on June 3, 1974 to one charge of obstruction of justice, having persuaded prosecution to change the charge from one of which he believed himself innocent to another of which he believed himself guilty, in order to testify freely.;[6] he was sentenced to 1 to 3 years of prison and fined $5,000; Colson served seven months.
• Gordon C. Strachan – White House aide to Haldeman; faced a maximum of 15 years in prison and $20,000 in fines. Charges against him were dropped before trial.
• Robert Mardian – aide to Mitchell and counsel to the Committee to Re-elect the President in 1972; faced 5 years in prison and $5,000 in fines. His conviction was overturned on appeal.[7]
• Kenneth Parkinson – counsel for the Committee to Re-elect the President; faced 10 years in prison and $10,000 in fines. He was acquitted at trial. Although Parkinson was a lawyer, G. Gordon Liddy was in fact counsel for the Committee to Re-elect the President.

http://tinyurl.com/o9zjelw

And those are just from the Nixon administration.
10/8/2017, 9:19 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


Yes, there really are enough Americans who are just that stupid to re-elect Trump.

I was convinced from the beginning that Trump wouldn't last a year. Mostly because he would eventually figure out there was work involved and he would get bored. Looks like I'll be wrong about that -- at least the leaving part.

It's going to be ALL about turnout. We have got to get these lazy Americans and non-involved Americans off their butts to actually VOTE what they're already feeling about this incompetent administration.

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Lis

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10/8/2017, 11:20 am Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


Bella and Brick, I would like to believe you are both correct. However I am less certain about Trump's demise. I never thought he was capable of even winning the Republican nomination. And then not in my wildest imagination did I envision him winning the Presidency. Unfortunately in both cases he proved me wrong. In 2016 there were four unique factors that fell perfectly in place for Trump:
 1. His hardcore base is heavily concentrated in the south and inter-mountain west. And thus delivered these regions enmasse for Trump.
  2. The Byzantine-like rules and structure of the Electoral college currently work to the advantage of the red states and to a I certain degree the purple swing states. And to the disadvantage to the heavily populated blue states like California and Bew York.
  3. There was a quiet but very real economic unrest across the lightblue and purple states across the rust belt and the Eastern farm belt -- a region stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa and Minnesota.
  4. In the general election, Hillary Clinton, the quintessential policy wonk ran an absolutely terrible campaign that allowed Donald Trump to accomplish the impossible and come across as an economic populist who was in touch with the common person.

In 2020 the Democrats cannot alter #1 or #2. And their ability to alter #3 is totally dependent upon their ability to correct #4. We will see.




Last edited by GoHawk, 10/8/2017, 11:41 am


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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cb6X97qXOdE
10/8/2017, 11:28 am Link to this post PM GoHawk
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

bricklayer wrote:

quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

When is the last time that a politician went to prison for something other than sex crimes or stealing money? I'll believe that folks are going to be indicted when it happens. Up until them, I'm not holding my breath. Government always protects itself as do politicians.



So is the Special Counsel investigation a waste of time?



For the most part. I think there are a few guys who could be in trouble, perjury for starters, but nothing sensational.
10/8/2017, 8:13 pm Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

quote:

bricklayer wrote:

quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

When is the last time that a politician went to prison for something other than sex crimes or stealing money? I'll believe that folks are going to be indicted when it happens. Up until them, I'm not holding my breath. Government always protects itself as do politicians.



So is the Special Counsel investigation a waste of time?



For the most part. I think there are a few guys who could be in trouble, perjury for starters, but nothing sensational.



Because...conspiring with a hostile nation to usurp an American election is no big deal?

---
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10/8/2017, 8:45 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


You're making an assumption without any evidence.
10/9/2017, 8:03 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


If you don't watch Rachel Maddow, you may not have seen the evidence, Cooter. I haven't see it anywhere but on MSNBC, in most detail on Rachel's show. In defense of the other networks, there are so many crises going on currently that there's hardly time to get them all in, even in a 24/7 news cycle.
10/9/2017, 8:10 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


quote:

Bellelettres wrote:

If you don't watch Rachel Maddow, you may not have seen the evidence, Cooter. I haven't see it anywhere but on MSNBC, in most detail on Rachel's show. In defense of the other networks, there are so many crises going on currently that there's hardly time to get them all in, even in a 24/7 news cycle.



Do you really think that if there's so much evidence out there that she'd be the only one on it? Really? The media would be on it like white on rice.

I think some Trump folks, and maybe even the kids, were working with Russians to make some money deals after the election, and some of them lied about it to Congress. Conspiring to throw the election to Trump is quite another story.
10/9/2017, 8:49 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


I don't watch Rachel Maddow simply because MSNBC is one of two networks I refuse to watch -- the other is FoxNews. I get most of my news off of CNN, C-SPAN and the internet. Subscribe to online services of Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and two Italian newspapers - il Piccollo (Trieste) and La Stampa (Torino). Plus my copies of Field and Stream. ;-)

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10/9/2017, 8:52 am Link to this post PM GoHawk
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


She is by no means the only one on it. WaPo and the New York Times are full of it. But she's the only one on TV that I have seen go into it in such detail as she does. As I said before, there's not much room for detail on something that is being investigated, when daily there's another Trump fire to put out.
10/9/2017, 9:07 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: The 2020 Presidential Election


I continue to regard the Trump presidency as a bad dream. And shortly I will awaken and discover that Mark Warner is President and either Jon Huntsman or Bill Richardson is Secretary of State. Hell at this point I will even take Bernie Sanders.

---
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Long live the Free Territory of Trieste (1947 - 1954)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cb6X97qXOdE
10/9/2017, 9:22 am Link to this post PM GoHawk
 


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