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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


This can't be true. After all, we're continually being told that gun control won't work.

A huge international study of gun control finds strong evidence that it actually works


video at source

Does gun control help reduce gun deaths? It's a crucially important question in light of the horrible news out of Las Vegas, but even for PhDs, it's a tough one. There's been a mountain of research on the subject, but these dozens of studies conducted over many years and in many different countries reach a broad and sometimes contradictory range of conclusions. It's hard to know what it really tells us, taken together, about whether gun laws can reduce gun violence.

A 2016 study, published in the academic journal Epidemiologic Reviews, seeks to resolve this problem. It systematically reviewed the evidence from around the world on gun laws and gun violence, looking to see if the best studies come to similar conclusions. It was the first such study to look at the international research in this way.

The authors are careful to note that their findings do not conclusively prove that gun restrictions reduce gun deaths. However, they did find a compelling trend whereby new restrictions on gun purchasing and ownership tended to be followed by a decline in gun deaths.

"Across countries, instead of seeing an increase in the homicide rate, we saw a reduction," Julian Santaella-Tenorio, a doctoral student in epidemiology at Columbia University and the study's lead author, told me in an interview shortly after publication.

What the study found

Image

Santaella-Tenorio's study (co-authored with Columbia professors Magdalena Cerdá and Sandro Galea, as well as the University of North Carolina's Andrés Villaveces) examined roughly 130 studies that had been conducted in 10 different countries. Each of those 130 studies had looked at some specific change in gun laws and its effect on homicide and/or suicide rates. Most of them looked at law changes in the developed world, such as the US, Australia, and Austria, while a few looked at gun laws in developing countries, specifically Brazil and South Africa.

This isn't, then, a study that compiled its own original data on one specific gun law. It's actually more valuable than that: It's telling us what all the different studies on individual laws say when you examine them put together.

So what do Santaella-Tenorio et al. conclude?
10/6/2017, 8:25 am Link to this post PM shiftless2
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


CONTINUED

First, and most importantly, that gun violence declined after countries pass a raft of gun laws at the same time: "The simultaneous implementation of laws targeting multiple firearms restrictions is associated with reductions in firearm deaths," the study finds.

This finding doesn't highlight one specific law, like an assault weapon ban, in isolation. There were "so many different kinds of laws," Santaella-Tenorio told me, that it was hard to make good international comparisons on every specific kind of gun restriction.

Rather, countries passed big packages of gun laws, which overhauled the nation's firearm code fairly broadly, which all tended to share similar features. According to Santaella-Tenorio, they generally included:

[list]- Banning powerful weapons, like automatic rifles.
- Implementing a background check system.
- Requiring people to get permits and licenses before buying a gun.[/list]

South Africa's comprehensive Firearm Control Act, passed in 2000, contained all these measures. One study found that firearm homicides in five major South African cities decreased by 13.6 percent per year for the next five years.

"Reductions in nonfirearm homicides were also observed," Santaella-Tenorio et al. note, "although not as pronounced as the ones observed for firearm homicides."

Austria's 1997 firearm law, similarly, required background checks, limited access to powerful firearms, and imposed rules about how gun owners had to store their guns. Santaella-Tenorio reviewed two studies on Austria's 1997 law, both of which found evidence that the law had reduced deaths. According to one of them, firearm homicides went down by 4.8 percent, while suicides went down by 9.9 percent.

Australia's 1996 National Firearms Agreement (which outright confiscated 650,000 guns, in addition to imposing background checks and licensing rules) is perhaps the best-studied of any of the international laws. Santaella-Tenorio et al. reviewed eight studies on it, most of which found clear and strong evidence of a reduction in firearm deaths after the law's passage.

One study, for example, compared the Australian state of Victoria to others around the country. Victoria had passed a raft of firearm restrictions in 1988, so the NFA didn't change policy there that much. But firearm deaths went down countrywide by an average of 14 percent in other states relative to Victoria, suggesting that the NFA provisions specifically had made the difference.

Santaella-Tenorio and his co-authors also found evidence that specific laws, such as background checks and rules on storage, reduced specific kinds of gun deaths.

"Laws restricting the purchase of (e.g., background checks) and access to (e.g., safer storage) firearms," they write, "are also associated with lower rates of intimate partner homicides and firearm unintentional deaths in children, respectively."

What they learned about guns in America

Image

Santaella-Tenorio and his colleagues looked at a number of studies on gun control in the United States as part of their overall review. There was strong evidence that that restricting access to guns tends to reduce gun deaths.

One study, for example, looked at Missouri's 2007 repeal of its law requiring a permit to purchase a firearm, which in effect repealed the state's background check requirement. This study found that after 2007, Missouri's homicide rate jumped by 25 percent. No other changes in law or circumstance appear to be able to explain the increase.

By contrast, laws favored by the National Rifle Association (such as concealed carry or stand your ground), when implemented, either had no effect on gun deaths or increased gun violence. And Santaella-Tenorio found this by considering not just studies that reached this conclusion, but also studies that supported loosening gun laws.

Most of the studies that supported these laws were written by a handful of authors, like Florida State's Gary Kleck and Fox News columnist John Lott. Scholars who reexamined their conclusions, sometimes even using their own data, generally came to the opposite results.

For instance, a study by Lott and the University of Georgia's David Mustard found that laws permitting concealed carry reduced homicides in states and counties that passed them. However, a subsequent study that reexamined the same data found no effect, and that Lott and Mustard had used flawed statistical procedures in examining the data.

Another Lott study found that castle doctrine laws — laws that eliminate the legal duty to retreat before using deadly force, but only in your home — reduced homicides by 9 percent. But a second study came to the opposite conclusion, finding an uptick in homicides after states passed such laws.

A third study looking at stand-your-ground laws — which go beyond castle doctrine in eliminating retreat duties outside the home as well — also found an uptick in deaths. Santaella-Tenorio and his coauthors summarize: "Stand your ground laws were associated with a 6.8% increase in homicide rates, mainly driven by increments (14.7%) in homicide rates among white males."

The point, then, is that the pro-gun studies tended to be outliers in the literature, and were not supported by the most rigorous available analysis.

"Our goal was just to see what was out there, and identify the quality of the studies," Santaella-Tenorio told me. "We eventually found that many others had used Lott's data, and they have found different results after adjusting for other variables, or using more years of data, or using different models."

This isn't conclusive, but it's powerful evidence

In our conversation, Santaella-Tenorio was insistent that he and his colleagues have not "proven" that gun laws reduce violence. The data, he says, is simply too complicated, and the analyses too primitive, to come to such a hard conclusion.

"It's really hard. In epidemiological studies — for example, pharmaceutical ones — you can randomly select your groups, and then have one group exposed to the pill and the other group not exposed," he says. "However, in policy studies ... you can't have some states be exposed to legislation and other states not."

This helps explain some unusual results. For instance, some data from Quebec found that a Canadian law reducing access to firearms led to an increase in suicides by hanging — a large enough increase to offset the decline in suicides by firearm that followed the law. Other studies, from Australia and New Zealand, found a similar substitution effect.

However, there is very good evidence — some of it from the same countries — that reducing access to guns reduces overall suicides. Indeed, Santaella-Tenorio himself believes that despite those three studies, limiting access to guns is very likely to reduce suicide rates overall.

"There's some other evidence that we didn't include in this review," he says, that finds attempting suicide is an impulsive decision that people regret (if they fail) and thus don't repeat. Firearms, because they're much more effective than taking pills or slashing your wrists, don't give people that option. Thus, reducing access to guns should (and empirically generally does) reduce the overall suicide rate.

This illustrates, then, that the findings in this study don't end the academic debate over guns. It's limited by study design — it only reviewed studies on firearm policy changes, not firearm ownership in general — and the inherent limitations in studying the effect of complicated public policy issues.

Nonetheless, this is a very important contribution to the gun debate. About 130 studies, from 10 different countries, converged on the idea gun deaths declined after laws restricting access to firearms went into force.

While it's not conclusive, it is very, very suggestive.

Gun crime is more prevalent in the US than in other rich countries

Gun homicides are considerably more common in the US than in peer countries.There were 35.5 gun homicides per million people in the US in 2013, compared to only 4.9 per million in Canada, and 0.93 per million in the UK, according to Global Burden of Disease study.

quote:

The following chart by Vox's Javier Zarracina summarizes how America compared using earlier, 2012 figures:

Image



https://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11120184/gun-control-study-international-evidence
10/6/2017, 8:26 am Link to this post PM shiftless2
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


How about the cities in the U. S. with strict gun control laws, and how about the gangs? I don't think they abide by any laws when it coms to firearms.
10/6/2017, 8:30 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


This was easy to find.
10/6/2017, 8:33 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


Laws don't prevent crime. Fear of prison prevents crime, for those of us that are capable of making that risk-vs-reward assessment.

Irrational madmen don't care whether there is a law or not.

During prohibition, alcohol was made illegal. It impacted lots of law-abiding folks that wanted to drink it. Eventually prohibition was repealed, and we have had many alcohol-related crimes and deaths since. Was that the right decision to repeal prohibition? If you are someone with a child that was killed by a drunk driver, you might have a different answer than someone that enjoys wine with their dinner.


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10/6/2017, 8:38 am Link to this post PM bigbarry2u
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


Do you regard that as a reliable source, Cooter?
10/6/2017, 8:41 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

How about the cities in the U. S. with strict gun control laws, and how about the gangs? I don't think they abide by any laws when it coms to firearms.



They don't abide by laws against murder, battery, or larceny either. So why have them? What would the cities with strict laws look like if they weren't on the books? That's an unanswerable rhetorical question.

It seems we look at some laws as deterrents while how many crimes are not committed because of them is unknowable, but that reasoning apparently doesn't apply to gun control laws. Why not?
10/6/2017, 8:41 am Link to this post PM bricklayer
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


By the same logic, one could say NOT creating new gun laws after Sandy Hook has successfully prevented any more mass shootings at elementary schools.




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10/6/2017, 8:46 am Link to this post PM bigbarry2u
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


You've lost me there, Barry. What?
10/6/2017, 8:48 am Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

How about the cities in the U. S. with strict gun control laws, and how about the gangs? I don't think they abide by any laws when it coms to firearms.



Here we go again. Because some people won't obey the law we shouldn't have any laws.
10/6/2017, 9:02 am Link to this post PM shiftless2
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


quote:

bigbarry2u wrote:

By the same logic, one could say NOT creating new gun laws after Sandy Hook has successfully prevented any more mass shootings at elementary schools.





Was that the logic I was using in asking that question? The questions I asked are unknowable, just as the conclusion you articulate is unknowable. That is the illogic that is used in the gun control debate, imo.

I am not claiming that it is better not to pass or modify laws because the results are unknowable, the pro gun lobby is. There is apparently a difference when considering gun control laws and when considering other laws. Why is that?

10/6/2017, 9:09 am Link to this post PM bricklayer
 
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Sorry, brick, I was referring to the graphic about the "idiots" that did not pass "reasonable" gun legislation. The implication is that new legislation was necessary in order to prevent future school shootings. Yet there have been no further school shootings.

Now, why is that? We didn't pass any new laws. How is it possible that there have not been any more mass shootings without new legislation?

Meanwhile, almost 3000 people have been shot in Chicago this year! Has Chicago's Democrat leadership passed any new laws to prevent this?

No, but they have been royally pissed off that Trump says they have a problem.

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10/6/2017, 9:44 am Link to this post PM bigbarry2u
 
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What's tiresome about gun discussions is that if one asserts there is a problem with gun-related deaths in the United States, a portion of the population fears that agreeing with that assertion means they will lose their guns. And if one asserts the Second Amendment protects their individual right to keep and bear arms, a portion of the population fears that agreeing with that assertion means the gun owners want to engage in killing others. Each group jumps to the far extreme when contemplating "What would that mean?" and hurls invective. I am not a gun-grabber; you are not a mass murderer.

I like the entire Bill of Rights. I don't want to take anything away from any of those Amendments.

But geezy peezy, can't we talk about what might reduce the gun violence in this country?

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10/6/2017, 9:56 am Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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quote:

Bellelettres wrote:

Do you regard that as a reliable source, Cooter?



It's an extremely reliable source. John Lott is probably the premier researcher and resource on gun crime and gun laws. Those who want the 2nd Amendment done away with lie like a rug.
10/6/2017, 10:12 am Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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quote:

Miz Robbie wrote:
But geezy peezy, can't we talk about what might reduce the gun violence in this country?




YES!!! Let's do that. But maybe we can do it in a way that does not assert one side doesn't care about gun deaths?

Anyway, what are the key parameters that we might be able to adjust in order to reduce gun violence?

- Supply of guns
- Types of guns
- Trustworthiness of gun owners
- Harsher penalties for unsafe or illegal use of guns
- Accessories that make guns less safe/more violent
- Accessories that make guns more safe/less violent
- Education / Certification
- Registration

Maybe there are others? What would you add to the list?

And of these, anyone, which ones do you think would leave to improvement in our current reality?


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10/6/2017, 11:44 am Link to this post PM bigbarry2u
 
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There's plenty of things that I would support. We've got I think over 10K state and federal gun laws now, most of which don't do !@#$ other than sound good.
10/6/2017, 12:23 pm Link to this post PM CooterBrown44
 
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quote:

CooterBrown44 wrote:

quote:

Bellelettres wrote:

Do you regard that as a reliable source, Cooter?



It's an extremely reliable source. John Lott is probably the premier researcher and resource on gun crime and gun laws. Those who want the 2nd Amendment done away with lie like a rug.



I'm beginning to think you're not a reliable source, Cooter.
10/6/2017, 1:06 pm Link to this post PM Bellelettres
 
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quote:

bigbarry2u wrote:

quote:

Miz Robbie wrote:
But geezy peezy, can't we talk about what might reduce the gun violence in this country?




YES!!! Let's do that. But maybe we can do it in a way that does not assert one side doesn't care about gun deaths?

Anyway, what are the key parameters that we might be able to adjust in order to reduce gun violence?

- Supply of guns
- Types of guns
- Trustworthiness of gun owners
- Harsher penalties for unsafe or illegal use of guns
- Accessories that make guns less safe/more violent
- Accessories that make guns more safe/less violent
- Education / Certification
- Registration

Maybe there are others? What would you add to the list?

And of these, anyone, which ones do you think would leave to improvement in our current reality?



Background checks, cooling off periods, holding gun show sales and private sales to the same legal standards that gun stores adhere to, limiting the size of magazines, and keeping guns out of the hands of the mentally unstable.

I think that every idea that you listed might reduce gun violence in today's world. I believe the same about my suggestions. Might. Doing nothing will not.

10/6/2017, 1:20 pm Link to this post PM bricklayer
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


Yes, Barry and Brick, YES! Thank you! Those are terrific areas to explore!

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10/6/2017, 1:35 pm Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: Yet Another Guns Thread


quote:

bricklayer wrote:

... keeping guns out of the hands of the mentally unstable.



So far the only thing this administration has done with respect to this is making it easier for the mentally ill to obtain guns.

10/6/2017, 2:26 pm Link to this post PM shiftless2
 


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