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JustLis Profile
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Here it FINALLY is. But I suspect that when they look back, they'll revise it to show it was even earlier than they now think.

(NBC News) - U.S. officially entered recession in February after 'unprecedented magnitude' of decline

The U.S. is officially in a recession, bringing an end to a historic 128 months of economic growth, after the coronavirus pandemic swept the country and shut down the economy.

For more than a decade, the American economy seemed to contradict the adage, “What goes up, must come down.” That ended in February, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the agency that identifies periods of economic growth and contraction.


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Lis

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6/8/2020, 3:07 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Just a heads up for Cooter, who was liking what he saw of his 401(k).

The Dow is off nearly 900 points in the first hour it's been open....

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Lis

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6/11/2020, 9:44 am Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


quote:

JustLis wrote:

Just a heads up for Cooter, who was liking what he saw of his 401(k).

The Dow is off nearly 900 points in the first hour it's been open....



It's down more than 1,000 now...
6/11/2020, 12:20 pm Link to this post PM MsSusieQueue
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


And now down more than 1,500.

The Fed Chairman told the truth this morning -- this won't be a "V-shaped" recession, as Trump keeps promising. Powell said it will be YEARS before we come completely back.

1.5 million people filed FIRST-TIME unemployment claims; that is a total of 44 million in last 12 weeks.

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6/11/2020, 1:22 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


What has caused today's big drop?

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6/11/2020, 1:34 pm Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


The Dow closed down 1,861.82 points (6.9% of its value).

The primary driver is that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said we will NOT have a "v-shaped" return in our GDP, as Trump keeps saying. Powell went further, saying that the Fed expects to keep interest rates "near zero" for the next few YEARS. And now we see why it was so bad for the Fed to lower interest rates earlier when Trump was screeching at them to do so. We're on the verge of a liquidity trap -- the situation where interest rates are so low already, that lowering them more won't have any effect on the economy. The Fed has lost its tools to deal with a recession. (It can still buy bonds to pump money into the economy, but if no one is borrowing, it won't help.) And with monetary policy gone, we only have fiscal policy left -- and good luck getting the House and Senate to agree to anything....

The jump in new unemployment claims appears to have startled investors, too. The states have started opening up, so we would naturally expect that fewer people would be filing new claims. But I read an article a while back that discussed how companies large and small may completely change how they operate. Letting workers work from home significantly reduces the office space needed, so companies may move out of expensive real estate. The other thing is that when employees are turning in their work from home, the employers can see just how productive each worker is -- and how they can fire their less productive workers.

In addition, investors seem to FINALLY be listening to the health care experts, who say coronavirus is already creating spikes in nearly half of US states, and it won't be "gone" anytime soon -- leading to longer-term closings and high unemployment for maybe years to come.

In addition, we're starting to hear about more MAJOR companies closing stores or closing entirely. From Business Insider:
-- Pier 1 Imports is closing 450 stores
-- Game Stop is closing 320 stores
-- Signet Jewelers is closing 300 stores
-- Papyrus is closing 254 stores
-- Victoria's Secret is closing 238 stores
-- Gap is closing 230 stores
-- Walgreen's is closing 200 stores

In addition (from various sources)....
-- Pier 1 Imports has now decided to close all of its 900 stores permanently
-- Chico's is closing all of its 1,400 stores in the US and Canada and will only sell items via Amazon, ShopRunner, and QVC
-- GNC, with 4,700 locations, plans to close 900 locations and may have to declare bankruptcy
-- Gordman's (and regional brands Bealls, Goody's and Peebles) is permanently closing 550 of its 700 stores
-- Starbuck's is closing 400 stores
-- Forever 21 is closing 350 of its 800 stores and has filed for bankruptcy
-- Papyrus (including American Greetings and Carlton Cards stores), in addition to closing all 254 stores, has now declared bankruptcy
-- J.C. Penney is permanently closing 242 of its stores and has declared bankruptcy
-- Tuesday Morning is closing 230 of its 700 stores and has declared bankruptcy
-- Art Van Furniture is permanently closing all 200 stores and has filed for bankruptcy
-- Destination Maternity (and regional brands Motherhood Maternity and A Pea in the Pod) is closing 183 stores and has declared bankruptcy
-- Modell's Sporting Goods is closing all 153 of its stores and has filed for bankruptcy
-- A.C. Moore Arts and Crafts is closing all 145 of its stores (though up to 40 may reopen as Michael's Arts and Crafts)
-- Office Depot has already closed 55 of its stores and is the process of closing 90 more
-- Macy's is closing 125 of its stores
-- Bose is closing all 119 of its stores around the world, including 50 in the US; it will still sell online
-- Olympia Sports is closing 76 of its 150 stores
-- Express (formerly Limited Express) is closing 66 of its 626 stores
-- Bed Bath & Beyond is closing 60 of its 1,500 stores
-- Sears has closed 51 stores so far this year; it emerged from bankruptcy last year and is dying
-- Earth Fare is closing all 50 of its grocery stores and has filed for bankruptcy
-- Bath & Body Works is closing 50 of its stores
-- Kmart has closed 50 stores so far this year; it is owned by the same company that holds Sears, and they're both wandering toward the sunset together
-- Christopher & Banks is closing 40 stores and moving to an e-commerce model
-- Lowe's is closing 34 stores
-- Lucky's Market is closing 32 of its 39 stores and has filed for bankruptcy; it hopes to sell the other seven locations
-- Gold's Gym is closing 30 of its 400 locations and has filed for bankruptcy
-- New York & Company (former Lerner Shops) is closing 27 stores
-- CVS is closing 22 drugstores, but still retain 9,900 locations
-- Neiman Marcus has closed 22 of its Last Call stores and filed for bankruptcy
-- Hallmark is closing 18 Gold Crown stores, but will keep more than 2,200 shops
-- Nordstrom is closing 16 locations, but will keep more than 100 stores open
-- Lord & Taylor has closed 3 (its Manhattan flagship store and two others); 40 stores remain, but sources say the company will declare bankruptcy after the COVID-19 lockdowns end
-- Walmart has closed 3 underperforming locations
-- J. Crew bankruptcy may force the company to close its stores

And still to come:
-- Hertz (which also owns Dollar, Thrifty, and Firefly), with 30,000 locations and more than 38,000 employees, has declared bankruptcy
-- 24-Hour Fitness is considering bankruptcy
-- AMC Theaters barely avoided bankruptcy due to an infusion of cash from investors, but it may not be enough in the long run
-- Cinemark Theaters is trying to raise $250 million to get to July 1; its staff has been laid off or permanently separated
-- Self-serve and buffet restaurants may have to close permanently

And in local news, our Ruby Tuesday restaurant has closed permanently.

To be fair, many of these retail stores were already negatively impacted by the move of shoppers to the big box stores and online. But the COVID-19 shutdowns were the final nail in the coffin for many of them.

---
Lis

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6/11/2020, 5:06 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Holy smoke, what a list!

Thanks for the analysis and the horrific list of closures, Lis.

I wonder how we recover from this.

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6/11/2020, 5:22 pm Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


It's SO sad to see all those stores closing. I really prefer to shop in brick-and-mortar stores where I can see the actual item I'm buying and try it on or figure out if it's the right size and style for the person for whom it would be a gift. I also have my favorite stores where I have come to know the employees and appreciate their service.

I'm not a fan of the Big Box stores, especially the ones who pay their employees so poorly that they end up on food stamps. (I won't mention names, but one of those rhymes with tall-fart.) I also hate to keep enriching Jeff Bezos, who owns Amazon and REALLY doesn't need any more of my money, and I've had so much trouble lately with online purchases that I could scream!!

I won't miss Victoria's Secret since I'm not their target audience, but I will miss Chico's, JC Penney and Macy's. And I hate to see movie theaters go out of business. We've been watching a fair number of movies on TV lately, but sometimes a movie really should be seen on the BIG SCREEN, like "1917" earlier this year.

And my IRA accounts aren't making me any less miserable about all of this!! And my son's wedding in Portland is postponed for a year. And the trip to Greece that the 6 of us (parents, two kids and their spouses) have been planning and paying for during the past two years is postponed - or maybe not going to happen at all.

I think I'm just going to pout and throw a pity party for myself and the rest of us. emoticon

And then I remember that I actually am still better off than most of the people in this world of ours. I have a roof over my head, decent food to eat, clean water (and good wine) to drink, clothes to wear, shoes on my feet, and - thanks to Medicare - fairly decent medical care. Most of all, I have people who actually love me because I am a decent, considerate person. Suck THAT up, Trump!!

/end of rant...
6/11/2020, 6:48 pm Link to this post PM MsSusieQueue
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Unfortunately, I suspect this is only the FIRST effect of the virus. Most of these closures came in May -- just six to eight weeks after we closed the economy.

Now with all of THESE workers out of work, they will buy less.... And so the deep cycle of recession begins.

I heard today that both Kay Jewelers and Jared were closing a number of stores, as well.

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6/11/2020, 7:26 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


It really IS sad to see all of these stores closing, Susie.

Unfortunately, I'm one of those shoppers who has moved to shopping from the big box stores or Amazon and having everything shipped to my front door. My lack of mobility is the largest reason, but my agoraphobia plays a pretty big part in it, too.

I probably do more than my fair share of shopping online at "Tall Fart," but if I can get it cheaper with Bezos, Amazon it is.

I COMPLETELY agree with you about the films that just MUST be caught on the big screen. Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Lord of the Rings, and similar films MUST be seen there to get the whole effect. emoticon

I'm SO sorry to hear the wedding and the trip are postponed.... emoticon I hope the researchers will have a breakthrough and we'll have a vaccine as soon as possible, so you can still make those memories with your family....

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Lis

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6/11/2020, 7:33 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Great rant, Susie! I agree with all of it!

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6/11/2020, 8:24 pm Link to this post PM Miz Robbie
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


Lovely. The SECOND story I hit on our local news site is:

County's May jobless rate tops state at 21.8%

Goodness....

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Lis

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6/23/2020, 12:39 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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(NBC News) - Feds sent more than 1 million stimulus checks to dead people, totaling $1.4 billion

More than a million Americans who had died received COVID-19 stimulus payments totaling $1.4 billion, a government watchdog said Thursday in a report to Congress.

The finding is part of a sweeping review of the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic by the Government Accountability Office, an independent nonpartisan congressional agency.

The GAO report also said that the IRS does not have a plan to notify ineligible recipients.



Ummmmmmmmm.... How WOULD the IRS notify dead people that they shouldn't have received checks???

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Lis

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6/25/2020, 4:38 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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(NBC News) - Millions are out of work. Many wonder whether there will be jobs to go back to.

Daniel Martinez, 28, had been earning enough money to support his wife and their daughter, working at a car dealership in Houston. He was beginning to look at upgrading the family’s small apartment to a house, but he was laid off in April as coronavirus cases began to soar. The dream of a new home vanished.

Each week, the jobs report published by the Labor Department spurs prominent headlines and discussion on cable news channels and social media. But behind the columns and the panels of pundits is a growing number of Americans attempting to read the economic tea leaves and figure out where they belong in the U.S. job market.


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Lis

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7/2/2020, 3:58 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


(NBC News) - The $600 federal unemployment benefit ends this month. Republican senators say enough already.

Federal coronavirus unemployment insurance is scheduled to expire at the end of this month as the coronavirus pandemic makes a resurgence in parts of the U.S. and some 25 million out-of-work Americans are collecting benefits. The Democratic-led House has passed legislation to extend the $600-per-week boost through January, but the Senate Republican majority is vowing not to continue that provision.

“Unemployment is extremely important. And we need to make sure, for those who are not able to recover their jobs, unemployment is adequate,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said. “That is a different issue from whether we ought to pay people a bonus not to go back to work. And so I think that was a mistake.”



Of course, Republican Senators would largely consider $600 pocket change, while most Americans would consider $600 partial rent for the month, food for the month....

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Lis

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7/2/2020, 4:06 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


(NBC News) - U.S. economy gains 4.8 million jobs as unemployment rate falls to 11.1 percent

The U.S. economy gained around 4.8 million jobs in June and the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1 percent. That’s down from 13.3 percent in May, according to the monthly employment report released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The data again beat economists' expectations after May's surprise gains and comes as the country struggles to reopen safely amid soaring coronavirus cases.


Too many governors pushed too hard to open too early. It reduced the unemployment rate, but as governors are now being forced to REclose restaurants, bars, and stores, the unemployment rate will bounce back up....

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Lis

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7/2/2020, 4:22 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


(NBC News) - GDP shrinks by a record 32.9 percent in second quarter as unemployment rises for second-straight week

The extent of the economic damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic was further revealed on Thursday, with gross domestic product for the second quarter sinking by a record 32.9 percent annualized, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, more than 1.43 million people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, according to new weekly data from the Department of Labor. It's the second-straight week that the number has risen.


We aren't coming out of this ANYTIME soon. The only thing that HAS kept us afloat is the $1200 stimulus checks and the $600 per week in additional unemployment benefits. Now that those are gone, and the rent holiday is gone, you are about to see seriously catostrophic economic failure....

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Lis

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8/1/2020, 4:05 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


quote:

JustLis wrote:

(NBC News) - GDP shrinks by a record 32.9 percent in second quarter as unemployment rises for second-straight week

The extent of the economic damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic was further revealed on Thursday, with gross domestic product for the second quarter sinking by a record 32.9 percent annualized, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, more than 1.43 million people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, according to new weekly data from the Department of Labor. It's the second-straight week that the number has risen.


We aren't coming out of this ANYTIME soon. The only thing that HAS kept us afloat is the $1200 stimulus checks and the $600 per week in additional unemployment benefits. Now that those are gone, and the rent holiday is gone, you are about to see seriously catostrophic economic failure....



It's important to remember that the 32.9 percent is an ANNUALIZED figure, Lis. I have hope that the House will prevail in extending the additional unemployment benefits and more stimulus checks. Some of those GOP Senators are starting to feel the pressure to step up, too.
8/3/2020, 1:51 pm Link to this post PM MsSusieQueue
 
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Re: Economics 101: Trump-Style


You're right about it being an annualized rate, Susie. I'm sorry if I misspoke somewhere upthread.

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Lis

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8/3/2020, 2:01 pm Link to this post PM JustLis
 
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No, you did not misspeak, Lis, but the headline does not make it clear about it being an annualized rate. A friend of mine noted that the media had not done an adequate job of explaining that it was NOT a 32.9 percent drop in the economy in the second quarter.
8/3/2020, 2:34 pm Link to this post PM MsSusieQueue
 


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